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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still